Quick Picks: The 2026 Academy Awards

I’ve never been more excited about the movies. This year got me hyped to go see the latest films in theater on several occasions, which was mostly due to The Big Picture podcast feeding my appetite for new movie intrigue, discussion and film criticism.

And yet, I can’t say that I’m set on a clear Best Picture winner or standout acting performance of the year. Most of the contenders for an Oscar this year are just a bit “mid” with hot takes and divisive opinions fueling debate across the industry.

Here’s how I think it could all go down on Sunday in my two favorite races. Make your picks on Kalshi.

Best Picture

This race comes down to One Battle After Another (OBAA) and Sinners. I’m picking Sinners to take the prize here.

The main debate on OBAA boils down to “good film? or not?” which shouldn’t be the talk around a Best Picture front runner. I’m predicting that there aren’t enough academy voters who genuinely like this film.

Personally, I think OBAA is riding on the shoulders of DiCaprio’s stardom and Paul Thomas Anderson’s quest to win Best Director. It just wasn’t a great watch for me, twice.

On the other hand, who among us was not entertained by the immersive and wild world of Sinners? This is what Best Picture should be, a movie that takes you on a ride.

Will win: Sinners (returns 4.3x on Kalshi)

Should win: Bugonia

Best Cinematography

“But OBAA was filmed on giant VistaVision cameras that are really noisy and hard to use blah blah”.

No, we don’t care. It’s the subject matter. OBAA is filled with people in pretty normal settings walking, running, talking in rooms and driving cars. The cinematography does not wow any more than other mild action flicks like Challengers or Michael Clayton.

What is wow, is Train Dreams. Turn the lights off, pop open Netflix and drift away. This film is beautiful, natural, serene and didn’t use loads of CGI animation to tell it’s story. It also won Best Cinematography at the Critics Choice Awards in January.

While I prefer Train Dreams. Sinners, is also wow-worthy as well and has enormous popularity and momentum behind it.

Will win: Sinners (returns 5x on Kalshi)

Could win: Train Dreams (returns 15.6x on Kalshi)

Other Categories

The fun continues in the race for Best Director where PTA is up against Sinners ace Ryan Coogler, and in Best Actor where Michael B. Jordan takes on Timothee Chalamet of Marty Supreme. Question is— just how much love will Sinners get?

Tune in this Sunday evening to see famous people acting surprised and making strange acceptance speeches that have nothing to do with the works of cinema they participated in.